Wednesday, January 8, 2014

The Price is Right!...What is the True Value of Jadeveon Clowney?



For the better part of two years now Jadeveon Clowney's name has been associated with the 2014 NFL Draft. Last year we heard insane suggestions like he should just sit out a year to preserve his draft stock, which obviously worked out for Tyrann Mathieu and Dez Bryant, although granted, they didn't decide to miss the year (for those who don't know they dropped, Tyrann for instance dropped to the third round). Nonetheless, people, or should I say, experts (cough:cough) were saying the most ridiculous things about this kid. Then came the hit....


This is the hit heard and seen around the world. It was a bone-shattering hit that made Michigan fans (like myself) cry and South Carolina fans jump so high and scream so loud that you would think they just got lucky for the first time. This play was shown on Sportscenter for what felt like forever! I get it, it's a great hit, but is it that great of a play? If you watch the video you can see that NO ONE blocked Jadeveon Clowney, allowing him to get a clean hit on the Runningback as the back was receiving the handoff. I don't care who you are, if you get that clean of a release off the ball, then you'd kill the Runningback the same way. The point is, this play didn't show me anything about Jadeveon's skill. What it did show me is that football, just like basketball, can apply the rule "ball don't lie" (South Carolina got the ball robbed from them the play before). So let's assess this kid's true talent.

Every scout is saying that he is a physical freak, and they're right. He's a 6'5/260 behemoth with great quickness and acceleration, and when given the chance, can lay the wood. After that point they run out of reasons why they love him so much. I don't mean to be a schmuck to Jadeveon, he is a hell of an athlete, but he wouldn't be the first person to look the part of an NFL player and not be any good at the next level (JaMarcus Russell anyone?). So I need something more than just some physical traits to believe that this kid is deserving of a #1 or top 10 pick.

The next complement this kid gets is pass rushing. So does he have close to double digit sacks or he at least have good pass rushing skills right? Eh, not really. He only racked up 3 sacks, and even though I'm not huge into statistics, you can't tell me someone is an elite pass rusher and he racks up under 5 sacks. From watching him on film I can see that his exterior pass rushing skills are bad, not average, bad. He doesn't understand the art of edge rushing at all. To my surprise though, he actually showed some talent when making inside moves on Tackles. When making moves to the inside his dominance really showed. He was able to shed the opposing players hands easily and use his speed and power to get between the Guard and Tackle to create pressure. Although this is good, if you're going to play Defensive End in the NFL you need to know how to edge rush.

Well is he good against the run? No, no, no. He can't shed blocks, plain and simple. He can get some penetration, and if not blocked, he will chase you down. But if you run at him, you'll probably beat him. The most frustrating thing about his run stopping ability is the look of confusion in his play. When he engages the Tackle he starts looking into the backfield, but not like a veteran would, like he's a kid at a M. Night Shyamalan movie, sitting their waiting to be surprised in the next scene. He is so confused, that when he does finally figure out what is going on, the play is already behind him.

Now you're probably thinking to yourself, well why would anyone want this kid? Is it his motor? No, his motor might be his worse part. When I talked over my evaluation with a colleague he raised the observation that his lack of awareness on the field is because he's not trying. This would make sense. Players that play with high motors, also have high motors off the playing field too. They practice and study just as intense. If this kid just felt like taking time off, leading to his confusion on the field then that might be worse than not knowing what's going on. I don't know about you, but I'd rather have a kid have no idea what he is doing and going 100% than a kid who just doesn't care and because of it, is lost.

The reason you do want this kid though is the exact reason I touched on earlier, he is behemoth and can become an all time great, but he won't get there with just any team. In order to become great he needs a three things.

1) A good, stable coach who can get the most out of him and teach him.

2) A place where he won't be asked to start. If he can just be a pass rushing specialist then he could work out, mainly because he won't have to think, just do.

3) He needs to go to a division without a mobile Quarterback. When rushing a mobile Quarterback you need to keep your lanes. If he does his inside move without a stunt being called, he'll surrender his entire flank leaving a HUGE lane for the Quarterback.

Okay, let's take a look at the top 3 fits.





1) Houston Texans-- He is not worthy of the #1 pick, but if Houston says screw it, then it would actually be a good fit. I have a lot of faith in Bill O'Brien. He'll get the most out of him and put him in spots to succeed. It also helps that he has Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus as starters, so there is no need to teach Jadeveon how to either be a 3-4 OLB or how to read offenses. The biggest reason of why this works is because they play in the weakest Quarterback driven division in the NFL. Won't be too hard to sack Blaine Gabbert and whoever is playing Quarterback in Tennessee.






2) Kansas City Chiefs-- If he drops to Kansas City then it might be worth grabbing him. Kansas City has two great pass rushers in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston and a good coach (outside of clock management) in Andy Reid. This would work out great for KC. They could play Jadeveon on passing downs as the groom him to eventually take Tamba's spot. Although there are good Quarterbacks in this division, they are all pocket passers. Peyton and Rivers aren't going to be running the option anytime soon.





3) San Diego Chargers-- Although I hate the ex-Denver Bronco Defensive Coordinator turned Head Coach Dennis Allen, I love ex-Denver Bronco Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy! He is a coach who looks at the players he has and creates schemes to make them successful, instead of the other way around like a lot of other coaches. He'll coach Jadeveon to be an All-Pro player, and he has the luxury to do that because he has Jarrett Johnson, Dwight Freeney and Melvin Ingram on his team. He can groom Jadeveon to eventually start along side Melvin Ingram, creating the perfect duo of player with talent and no motor, with a player with average talent and an amazing motor.

I understand I'm pretty much alone regarding my stance on Jadeveon Clowney (I figured that out when a waiter at a Long Island Italian Restaurant yelled at me telling me I was an idiot over my view. Seriously, a waiter, at Ciao Baby, seriously?). But nonetheless I stand behind my assessment. My warning to every NFL team about this kid is simple, buyer beware.

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